Early Warning System (EWS)

Based on what educators say, many traits stood out about high adoption schools. The EWS tool supported school reforms that differed in scope and intensity. Having the tool there kept the reforms in the forefront. Dropout is a complex phenomena with many intervening variables that enable students to stay in school or leave. In high adoption schools, stakeholders focused on the vision to implement the reforms, the values to engage the tool and produce positive outcomes, and the dissemination of the EWS data to make interventions targeted and effective. Without the leadership of the principals and the ability of the teachers to help students belong, reforms such as Multi Tierred System of Support and its ability to address dropout would not have been possible.

These high adoptions schools had the same characteristics of schools that tried the Early Warning System, but did not implement them. These schools are relatively high poverty but high adopting schools tended to be less well off than schools that tried and left. There was a shared demand to use the tool evidenced by low graduation rates, low test scores, and challenges with attendance. What made the high adoption school stand out was that there was support for teachers. Teachers earned more in high adoption schools than low adoption schools and stayed in their schools longer. More than student characteristics, these teacher characteristics showed why high adoption schools moved that needle to enable students to stay in school.

Based on the numbers, we know that in schools supported by the Montana EWS there were decreases in dropout rates. We can tell based on taking all high adoption schools and comparing them with non adoption schools. We can also tell by the increase in graduation rates in these schools. First, the system was accurate. An increase in student average risk score by 1% was associated with a 1.07% increase in dropout rates. Second, the tool was effective. Students that received an EWS score were 3% more likely to graduate. For high adoption schools, who generated scores more frequently, the more years a student was scored, the higher their possibility of graduating on time.

Click here for an EWS Summary

Publications

• Clausen, R (2025). The tie of data to intervention: case study of the Montana Early Warning System. Discover Education, vol 4, no 36. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44217-025-00420-x.
• Clausen, R (2024). Early Warning System. American School Board Journal. https://www.nsba.org/ASBJ/2024/august/early-warning-system.
• Clausen, R. (2024). Under the Hood: Montana Early Warning System. Journal of Scholarship & Practice. https://www.aasa.org/resources/resource/Under-the-hood.