Last year, in a paper published in Molecular Psychiatry, Stan Skafidas and colleagues made a remarkable claim: a simple genetic test could be used to predict autism risk from birth. The degree of genetic predictive power suggested by the paper was unprecedented for a common disease, let alone for a disease as complex and poorly understood as autism. However, instead of representing a revolution in autism research, many scientists felt that the paper illustrated the pitfalls of pursuing genetic risk prediction. After nearly a year of study, two papers have shown how the Skafidas et al. study demonstrates the dangers of poor experimental design and biases due to important confounders.